Abacos Bahamas

Abaco Weather

Average Weather for Abacos (Green Turtle Cay)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
757880808588898888868380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
636766707376777576747171
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
6.36.62.81.5115.64.67.45.42.76.84.6
Number of Rain Days
8755111391316695

Abaco Tide Tables

Green Turtle Cay, Abacos, Bahamas Weather Forecast

9/23/2021 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 79 F Mainly cloudy, showers around

Currently: Mostly Cloudy: 82F
Currently in Green Turtle Cay, BS: 82 °F and Mostly Cloudy

9/22/2021 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 81 F Partly sunny, a stray t-storm

Whitesound, Elbow Cay, Bahamas Weather Forecast

Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Eleuthera Weather Forecast

Melbourne Florida Radar Map

NASA's Hurricane Resource Page

Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)

Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics

Tropical Depression Eighteen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:47 GMT

Tropical Depression Eighteen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:48 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:39 pm

Tropical Depression Rose Graphics

Tropical Depression Rose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT

Tropical Depression Rose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:39 pm

Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT42 KNHC 230238
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry
mid-level air has taken their toll on the system.  Although Rose
appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it
seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the
system is over warm waters and some convection could return
overnight.  If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become
a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in
the official forecast.  The remnant low is forecast to continue to
gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF
suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time
period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level
trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for
re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for
the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by
the GFS.
 
Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt.  The
cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the
western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants
should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually
east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the
east-central Atlantic.  The latest guidance envelope has again
shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official
forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the
various consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 24.6N  40.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 25.7N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/0000Z 27.2N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/1200Z 28.4N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 29.0N  39.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  25/1200Z 29.5N  36.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 30.2N  33.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 2

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT43 KNHC 230238
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
The depression's organization has not improved since earlier this 
afternoon.  An analysis of the ambiguities from 0000 UTC ASCAT-B 
data suggests that the surface circulation is just barely closed, 
with the center still attached to the northern end of a trough.  
Peak wind retrievals from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt, so 
the initial intensity remains 30 kt.

Based on the ASCAT data, the depression appears to be moving just 
north of due west, or 275/13 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging to the 
north is expected to maintain the cyclone on a westward heading for 
the next 36 hours, followed by a path toward the west-northwest 
from day 2 through day 5.  The more notable part of the forecast is 
the forward speed.  Global models are showing anomalously strong 
500-mb ridging developing over the eastern and central Caribbean 
Sea in 2 to 3 days, which is likely to block the depression's 
forward progress toward the end of the forecast period.  In fact, 
the current NHC forecast has the system moving west-northwestward 
at only 7 or 8 kt well east of the Lesser Antilles on days 3 through 
5.  All this means that it will probably be a few more days before 
we have a better idea if and how the system might potentially 
threaten areas farther west.  For the 5-day forecast period, there 
is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the 
updated NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA 
consensus aids.  This solution is not too different from the 
previous forecast.
 
Overall, an environment of low shear, warm sea surface 
temperatures, and a moist, unstable atmosphere appears conducive 
for strengthening.  However, there is some sort of signal being 
conveyed by the global models (e.g., the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) 
whereby the cyclone's surface circulation does not really tighten 
up for another 24 to 48 hours.  Given the system's current 
structure, this scenario seems plausible.  Therefore, the updated 
NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening during 
the first 48 hours, just a bit below the intensity consensus in 
deference to the global model solutions.  After 48 hours, the 
official forecast converges on top of the previous NHC forecast and 
still brings the cyclone to hurricane, and then possibly major 
hurricane, strength by the end of the forecast period.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 10.2N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 10.4N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 10.9N  39.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 11.4N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 12.0N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 12.6N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 13.2N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 14.5N  50.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 16.0N  53.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021


000
WTNT22 KNHC 230238
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  40.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N  40.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N  40.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N  41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N  42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N  41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N  39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N  36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N  33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N  40.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Tropical Depression Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021


000
FONT12 KNHC 230238
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)

...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 24.6, -40.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Tropical Depression Rose Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT32 KNHC 230238
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 40.9W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 
km/h).  A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn
toward the north forecast by Thursday night.  A motion toward the
northeast is expected on Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 
early Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Tropical Depression Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021


000
FONT13 KNHC 230238
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021               
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Remnants of Peter Graphics

Remnants of Peter 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:01 GMT

Remnants of Peter 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:01 GMT

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm

Tropical Depression Eighteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021


000
WTNT23 KNHC 230237
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N  35.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N  35.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N  34.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N  37.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.9N  39.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N  42.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.0N  44.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.6N  46.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N  47.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N  50.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N  53.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N  35.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen (AT3/AL182021)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Eighteen was located near 10.2, -35.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm

Tropical Depression Eighteen Public Advisory Number 2

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT33 KNHC 230237
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 35.0W
ABOUT 1955 MI...3150 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 35.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday.  
A slower motion toward the west-northwest is expected later on 
Friday and continuing into the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the 
depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday.  It is then 
forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm

Remnants of Peter Forecast Discussion Number 18

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT41 KNHC 230237
TCDAT1
 
Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
Although a low-level swirl can still be seen in infrared satellite
imagery, this feature has continued to lose definition.  A recently 
arriving partial ASCAT-A overpass shows that the circulation has 
become more elongated, and Peter lacks a well-defined center.  In 
addition, the system has not produced any organized deep convection 
in quite some time.  The cloudiness and convective activity that has 
been occuring over the western Atlantic has been located along a 
trough axis well northeast of the decaying circulation center.  As a 
result, Peter no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, 
and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system.  The initial 
intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with the ASCAT data.  The 
remnants of Peter are expected to remain within an area of strong 
upper-level westerly winds, and further weakening should occur over 
the next day or two. 

The system has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 335/4 kt.  
A weakness in the low-level ridge should allow the remnants to turn 
northward tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through 
the end of the week. 

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information 
on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO 
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 22.1N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS
 12H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm

Summary for Remnants of Peter (AT1/AL162021)

...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Peter was located near 22.1, -67.0 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:35 pm

Remnants of Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021


000
FONT11 KNHC 230235
PWSAT1
                                                                    
REMNANTS OF PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF PETER WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30
MPH...45 KM/H.                                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
 
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
 
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:35 pm

Remnants of Peter Public Advisory Number 18

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT31 KNHC 230235
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Peter were located near
latitude 22.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).  The remnants are 
expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Peter will affect the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas during the
next day or so.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on the remnants of 
Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:35 pm

Remnants of Peter Forecast Advisory Number 18

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021


018 
WTNT21 KNHC 230234
TCMAT1
 
REMNANTS OF PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  67.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  67.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N  66.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N  67.0W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF 
PETER CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 
KWBC.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:34 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 222302
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico,
on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1200 miles west-northwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly designated Tropical
Depression Eighteen, located about 2000 miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the
westernmost Azores. This low is expected to be nearly stationary
over cold waters through Thursday, but it could become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves southward over
marginally warmer waters on Friday and Saturday. Strong upper-level
winds are expected to develop over the system during the weekend,
which would likely limit its development. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

Posted on 22 September 2021 | 6:02 pm

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