Abacos Bahamas

Abaco Weather

Average Weather for Abacos (Green Turtle Cay)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
757880808588898888868380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
636766707376777576747171
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
6.36.62.81.5115.64.67.45.42.76.84.6
Number of Rain Days
8755111391316695

Abaco Tide Tables

Green Turtle Cay, Abacos, Bahamas Weather Forecast

11/23/2019 Forecast
High: 77 F Low: 73 F Partly sunny and delightful

Currently: Mostly Clear: 71F
Currently in Green Turtle Cay, BS: 71 °F and Mostly Clear

11/22/2019 Forecast
High: 75 F Low: 71 F Sunshine and beautiful

Whitesound, Elbow Cay, Bahamas Weather Forecast

Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Eleuthera Weather Forecast

Melbourne Florida Radar Map

NASA's Hurricane Resource Page

Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)

Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220520
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located several hundred miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Posted on 21 November 2019 | 11:20 pm

Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 220247
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019

Sebastien continues to produce a central dense overcast and a large
band on the southeastern side of the circulation. Recent
scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are at least 45
kt and, since there has been little overall change in the satellite
presentation within the past several hours, the initial wind speed
will stay 50 kt.

Two notable changes have been made on this forecast.   As
foreshadowed in the previous forecast, the models are no longer
rapidly accelerating the storm to the northeast ahead of a
mid-latitude trough. Instead, there is better agreement tonight on a
steadier motion to the northeast due to the trough in the short
term.  Sebastien will then continue moving northeastward embedded in
the mid-latitude southwesterly flow over the weekend. The new
forecast is substantially slower than the last one, but is still on
the faster side of the guidance due to continuity concerns.

The second significant change is that Sebastien is no longer
expected to become a hurricane.  The cyclone will soon be moving
over sub-26C waters with strong shear, and it seems unlikely to
intensify much in these conditions.  Model intensity guidance
continues to decrease, and the NHC forecast follows that trend.
Weakening should start by the weekend over even cooler waters in a
high-shear environment, and these factors are forecast to cause
Sebastien to transition into a non-convective low or extratropical
cyclone in 36-48 h. Careful watchers of the forecast will note that
NHC has predicted extratropical transition at 48 h since Sebastien
was born over 48 h ago, and this timing has been pushed back
primarily due to the slower-than-expected motion.  Thus, this timing
can't be considered a particularly confident prediction until the
track forecast becomes more consistent.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 24.7N  57.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 26.0N  55.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 28.0N  51.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 30.3N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 32.7N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/0000Z 37.5N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Posted on 21 November 2019 | 8:47 pm

Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics

Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 02:46:38 GMT

Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 03:24:22 GMT

Posted on 21 November 2019 | 8:46 pm

Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019


685 
FONT15 KNHC 220246
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019               
0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Posted on 21 November 2019 | 8:46 pm

Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

...SEBASTIEN MOVING FASTER WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Nov 21 the center of Sebastien was located near 24.7, -57.8 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Posted on 21 November 2019 | 8:45 pm

Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 220245
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
1100 PM AST Thu Nov 21 2019

...SEBASTIEN MOVING FASTER WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 57.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien
was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 57.8 West. Sebastien
is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast overnight, with
weakening beginning by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Posted on 21 November 2019 | 8:45 pm

Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019


000
WTNT25 KNHC 220245
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019
0300 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  57.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N  57.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  58.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 26.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.0N  51.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.3N  47.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 140SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.7N  43.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 37.5N  34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  90SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N  57.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Posted on 21 November 2019 | 8:45 pm

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