Abacos Bahamas

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Average Weather for Abacos (Green Turtle Cay)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
757880808588898888868380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
636766707376777576747171
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
6.36.62.81.5115.64.67.45.42.76.84.6
Number of Rain Days
8755111391316695

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Green Turtle Cay, Abacos, Bahamas Weather Forecast

6/2/2020 Forecast
High: 81 F Low: 77 F Windy with a t-storm in spots

Currently: Partly Sunny: 79F
Currently in Green Turtle Cay, BS: 79 °F and Partly Sunny

6/1/2020 Forecast
High: 83 F Low: 77 F Partly sunny

Whitesound, Elbow Cay, Bahamas Weather Forecast

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NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 012312 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

Corrected to include Tropical Depression Three advisory information.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly-formed
Tropical Depression Three, located over the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Posted on 1 June 2020 | 6:13 pm

Tropical Depression Three Graphics

Tropical Depression Three 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2020 21:02:35 GMT

Tropical Depression Three 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2020 21:24:43 GMT

Posted on 1 June 2020 | 4:02 pm

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020


000
WTNT43 KNHC 012100
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020
 
Recent satellite data and surface observations from Mexico show
that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather
over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and that the center has moved over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche.  Although the deep convection has
waned somewhat, there is evidence of banding in both visible
satellite imagery and recent radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico.
Based on these data, advisories are being issued on a tropical
depression.  The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which is in
agreement with earlier ASCAT data.

The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of
Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally 
conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days. The NHC 
forecast is in line with much of the intensity guidance and calls 
for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with 
some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the 
system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche.  After that time, 
the system's intensity will depend on how much it interacts with 
land.  Although the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models 
take the cyclone inland over southern Mexico, the NHC forecast 
keeps it just offshore and shows the cyclone maintaining tropical 
storm strength.  Later in the period, the guidance suggests that 
the system could strengthen over the south-central Gulf of Mexico, 
but the latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low 
confidence. 

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt.  The system 
has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central 
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains 
embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward, 
and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of 
days.  On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the 
southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and 
confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high.  After 
that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the 
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over 
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the 
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario.  In this scenario, both models 
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico 
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.  
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble 
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving 
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5.  The NHC forecast favors 
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone 
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs 
later this week.  The latter portion of both the track and intensity 
forecast are of quite low confidence. 

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of 
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could 
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to 
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico 
where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf 
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the 
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf 
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this 
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in 
place as we begin the season. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 19.6N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 19.8N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.5N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.2N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 19.0N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 23.0N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 1 June 2020 | 4:01 pm

Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032020)

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 the center of Three was located near 19.6, -91.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Posted on 1 June 2020 | 3:51 pm

Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020


000
WTNT33 KNHC 012050
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 91.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Campeche westward to Puerto de Veracruz
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three 
was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.2 West. The 
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). 
This motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The 
depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a 
slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay 
of Campeche through late Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the 
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the 
southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and 
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or 
Tuesday. 
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the 
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO 
header WTNT43 KNHC. 

RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain 
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states 
of Tabasco and Veracruz and adjacent portions of Guatemala. This 
system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10 
inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum 
rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of 
Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall 
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area Tuesday night.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Posted on 1 June 2020 | 3:51 pm

Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 01 2020


000
FONT13 KNHC 012050
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020               
2100 UTC MON JUN 01 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)  11(19)   7(26)   1(27)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Posted on 1 June 2020 | 3:51 pm

Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 01 2020


000
WTNT23 KNHC 012050
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
2100 UTC MON JUN 01 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CAMPECHE WESTWARD TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  91.2W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  91.2W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N  90.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.8N  92.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N  92.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N  93.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.8N  93.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.0N  92.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N  91.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  91.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Posted on 1 June 2020 | 3:50 pm

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