Abacos Bahamas

Abaco Weather

Average Weather for Abacos (Green Turtle Cay)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
757880808588898888868380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
636766707376777576747171
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
6.36.62.81.5115.64.67.45.42.76.84.6
Number of Rain Days
8755111391316695

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Green Turtle Cay, Abacos, Bahamas Weather Forecast

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10/6/2024 Forecast
High: 84 F Low: 77 F A little rain

10/7/2024 Forecast
High: 81 F Low: 75 F Some rain and a thunderstorm

Whitesound, Elbow Cay, Bahamas Weather Forecast

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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Hurricane Milton Graphics

Hurricane Milton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:44:56 GMT

Hurricane Milton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:44:56 GMT

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:44 pm

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024


000
WTNT43 KNHC 070242
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024

Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the 
hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that 
occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images. 
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for 
00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower 
than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt 
until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite 
appearance. 

Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at 
315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by 
a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the 
next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or 
north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward 
extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the 
guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little  north 
and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest 
TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. 

There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's 
intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical 
wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow 
layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear 
appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water 
vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's 
small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along 
Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in 
part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity 
guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit 
of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity 
forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In 
fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the 
prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these 
negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above 
the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over 
the next few days. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 15.0N  39.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 16.0N  40.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 17.4N  42.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 18.8N  44.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 20.2N  45.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 21.2N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 21.9N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 23.4N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 25.0N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:43 pm

Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 7

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024


000
WTNT44 KNHC 070242
TCDAT4
 
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
 
Milton continues to intensify.  The hurricane's center is embedded 
within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense 
convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Tail Doppler wind 
data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the 
circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from 
1 to 5 km elevation.  Observations from both Air Force and NOAA 
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and 
that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt.
 
Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the
hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion
estimate of 100/6 kt.  Milton is moving within the southern portion
of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also
being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to
mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf.  The
numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east
of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence
on Milton will gradually lessen with time.  As the  mid-level
trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72
hour time frame.  After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn
east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the
southeastern United States.  The official track forecast follows
essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but
is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model
consensus guidance.  Again it should be noted that the average NHC
track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.
 
Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat 
content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist 
low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days.  The official intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly 
strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of 
days.  Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern 
Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear.  The latest SHIPS 
model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in 
60-72 hours.  Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the 
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast.  However, the system is 
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in 
Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the 
coastline.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.
 
2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday.
Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given
by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
 
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.
 
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 22.4N  93.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 22.2N  91.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 22.3N  90.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 22.9N  88.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 24.2N  86.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  09/1200Z 25.8N  84.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 27.5N  82.3W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/0000Z 29.6N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0000Z 31.0N  71.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:43 pm

Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024


000
FONT14 KNHC 070242
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024               
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   2(10)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   1(17)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  17(35)   1(36)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)
WAYCROSS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  19(41)   1(42)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  11(16)   X(16)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  13(25)   X(25)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  12(36)   X(36)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)  22(50)   X(50)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  13(22)   X(22)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)
 
THE VILLAGES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)  16(53)   X(53)
THE VILLAGES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  10(26)   X(26)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   X(10)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  42(42)  19(61)   X(61)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  12(28)   X(28)
ORLANDO FL     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  53(53)  22(75)   1(76)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  19(41)   X(41)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  12(20)   X(20)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  53(53)  22(75)   1(76)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  19(41)   X(41)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  13(21)   X(21)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  51(52)  17(69)   1(70)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)  13(34)   X(34)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   X(17)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  45(46)  13(59)   X(59)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   9(24)   X(24)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  44(45)   7(52)   1(53)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   X(17)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   5(29)   X(29)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   4(25)   X(25)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  36(40)   2(42)   X(42)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  38(46)   2(48)   X(48)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
NAPLES FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  66(71)   4(75)   X(75)
NAPLES FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  37(38)   4(42)   X(42)
NAPLES FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   3(22)   X(22)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  56(58)   6(64)   X(64)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   3(36)   X(36)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  77(82)   6(88)   X(88)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  52(52)   6(58)   1(59)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  33(33)   4(37)   X(37)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  70(72)   9(81)   X(81)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  44(44)   8(52)   X(52)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  25(25)   7(32)   X(32)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  46(47)  10(57)   X(57)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   9(31)   X(31)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   4(16)   X(16)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)   4(25)   X(25)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  29(31)   4(35)   X(35)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   2(13)   X(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   3(16)   X(16)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ALBANY GA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
DOTHAN AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)   X(14)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  2  42(44)   8(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
MERIDA MX      50  X   7( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MERIDA MX      64  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   4( 4)  16(20)   5(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  18(42)   1(43)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)   1(13)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  10(16)   X(16)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  28(39)   5(44)   X(44)   X(44)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm

Hurricane Leslie Graphics

Hurricane Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:42:14 GMT

Hurricane Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:42:14 GMT

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm

Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 7

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024


000
WTNT24 KNHC 070241
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  93.1W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  93.1W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  93.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N  91.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  80SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N  90.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.9N  88.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N  86.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.8N  84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.5N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N  77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  40SE  60SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N  71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...110NE  20SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...210NE  90SE 210SW 130NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  93.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm

Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 7

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024


000
WTNT34 KNHC 070241
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
 
...MILTON STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
 
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was 
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.1 West.  Milton is 
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h).  An eastward to 
east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a 
faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On the 
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and 
Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by 
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and
become a major hurricane on Monday.
  
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
 
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm

Summary for Hurricane Milton (AT4/AL142024)

...MILTON STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -93.1 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm

Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024


000
FONT13 KNHC 070241
PWSAT3
                                                                    
HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024               
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:41 pm

Hurricane Leslie Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024


000
WTNT33 KNHC 070240
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
 
...LESLIE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 39.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 39.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow and
continue through the week. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:41 pm

Summary for Hurricane Leslie (AT3/AL132024)

...LESLIE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 15.0, -39.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:41 pm

Hurricane Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024


000
WTNT23 KNHC 070240
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  39.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  50SE  40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  39.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  39.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N  40.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N  42.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N  44.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N  45.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.2N  47.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N  48.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N  50.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  39.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:40 pm

Hurricane Kirk Graphics

Hurricane Kirk 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:36:08 GMT

Hurricane Kirk 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:36:08 GMT

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:36 pm

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 31

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024


000
WTNT42 KNHC 070232
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
 
Kirk is in the process of transitioning into an extratropical 
cyclone.  Satellite images show that the associated deep convection 
is now confined to the northern side of the circulation and that the 
inner core has been eroding.  In addition, there appears to be some 
frontal features beginning to form.  The initial intensity is 
lowered to 70 kt following a blend of the latest satellite intensity 
estimates.  The 34-kt wind radii have been tweaked on the system's 
east side based on recent ASCAT data.

Extratropical transition should be complete on Monday when the 
system moves over water temperatures in the low 20's C and into an 
environment of nearly 40 kt of vertical wind shear.  These 
parameters will also cause steady weakening during the next few 
days, and dissipation seems likely by day 4.  The models are in 
good agreement, and this forecast is closest to the latest GFS 
solution.

Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial 
motion is 045/22 kt.  A turn to the east-northeast with a notable 
increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as 
the system moves within the mid-latitude westerly flow.  This 
should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on 
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.

Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large 
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across 
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and 
Atlantic Canada.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 38.6N  43.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 41.0N  39.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  08/0000Z 42.9N  33.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  08/1200Z 43.5N  25.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  09/0000Z 43.8N  16.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  09/1200Z 45.6N   6.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  10/0000Z 48.1N   3.7E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:33 pm

Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024


000
FONT12 KNHC 070232
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024               
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X  20(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm

Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 31

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024


325 
WTNT32 KNHC 070232
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
 
...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY...
...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 43.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 43.6 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h).  An even faster 
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to 
become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple 
of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm

Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)

...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST COAST... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Oct 7 the center of Kirk was located near 38.6, -43.6 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 31

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024


000
WTNT22 KNHC 070231
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  43.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE  90SW  60NW.
50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 480SE 540SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N  43.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N  44.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N  39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  70SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.
34 KT...260NE 290SE 220SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.9N  33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW  70NW.
34 KT...220NE 290SE 250SW 190NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N  25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 250SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.8N  16.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  70SE  70SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.6N   6.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.1N   3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE 150SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N  43.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 062341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some development of this system while it
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde
Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 6:41 pm

Hurricane Milton Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Hurricane Milton Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:48:07 GMT

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 4:48 pm

Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Hurricane Milton Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:29:36 GMT

Posted on 6 October 2024 | 4:29 pm

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