Abaco Weather
Average Weather for Abacos (Green Turtle Cay)
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F° |
| 75 | 78 | 80 | 80 | 85 | 88 | 89 | 88 | 88 | 86 | 83 | 80 |
| Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F° |
| 63 | 67 | 66 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 74 | 71 | 71 |
| Monthly Rainfall - Inches |
| 6.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 11 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 4.6 |
| Number of Rain Days |
| 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
Abaco Tide Tables
Green Turtle Cay, Abacos, Bahamas Weather Forecast
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10/6/2024 Forecast
High: 84 F Low: 77 F A little rain 
10/7/2024 Forecast
High: 81 F Low: 75 F Some rain and a thunderstorm 
Whitesound, Elbow Cay, Bahamas Weather Forecast
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NASA's Hurricane Resource Page
Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)
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Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:44:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:44:56 GMT
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:44 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
000
WTNT43 KNHC 070242
TCDAT3
Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the
hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that
occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images.
Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for
00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower
than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt
until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite
appearance.
Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at
315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by
a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the
next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or
north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward
extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the
guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north
and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest
TVCA and HCCA consensus aids.
There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's
intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical
wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow
layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear
appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water
vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's
small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along
Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in
part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity
guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit
of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity
forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In
fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the
prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these
negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above
the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over
the next few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:43 pm
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
000
WTNT44 KNHC 070242
TCDAT4
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded
within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense
convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind
data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from
1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and
that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt.
Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the
hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion
estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion
of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also
being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to
mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The
numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east
of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence
on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level
trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72
hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn
east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the
southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows
essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but
is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model
consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC
track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.
Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat
content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist
low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly
strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of
days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern
Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS
model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in
60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in
Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the
coastline.
Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.
2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday.
Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given
by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:43 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000
FONT14 KNHC 070242
PWSAT4
HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11)
LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15)
BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17)
BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10)
KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) 1(36)
KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13)
KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14)
WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) 1(42)
MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16)
MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25)
JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) X(36)
GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14)
GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 22(50) X(50)
DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22)
DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 16(53) X(53)
THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26)
THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 19(61) X(61)
ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) X(28)
ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 22(75) 1(76)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 22(75) 1(76)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 17(69) 1(70)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 13(59) X(59)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11)
FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 7(52) 1(53)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 5(29) X(29)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25)
HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 2(42) X(42)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 2(48) X(48)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 66(71) 4(75) X(75)
NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 4(42) X(42)
NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 56(58) 6(64) X(64)
FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 3(36) X(36)
FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 77(82) 6(88) X(88)
VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) 6(58) 1(59)
VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 4(37) X(37)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 70(72) 9(81) X(81)
TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 8(52) X(52)
TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 7(32) X(32)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 10(57) X(57)
CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31)
CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 4(35) X(35)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 2 42(44) 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
MERIDA MX 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MERIDA MX 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 18(42) 1(43)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 28(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:42:14 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:42:14 GMT
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000
WTNT24 KNHC 070241
TCMAT4
HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 93.4W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...110NE 20SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 93.1W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
000
WTNT34 KNHC 070241
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
...MILTON STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cabo Catoche
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Cancun
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions
of Florida early Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.1 West. Milton is
moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan
Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and
become a major hurricane on Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings
the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along
with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as
Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next
day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm
...MILTON STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6
the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -93.1
with movement E at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 977 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:42 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000
FONT13 KNHC 070241
PWSAT3
HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:41 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
000
WTNT33 KNHC 070240
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024
...LESLIE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 39.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 39.4 West. Leslie is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow and
continue through the week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:41 pm
...LESLIE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 6
the center of Leslie was located near 15.0, -39.4
with movement NW at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:41 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000
WTNT23 KNHC 070240
TCMAT3
HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.0W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 39.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:40 pm
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:36:08 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:36:08 GMT
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:36 pm
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
000
WTNT42 KNHC 070232
TCDAT2
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
Kirk is in the process of transitioning into an extratropical
cyclone. Satellite images show that the associated deep convection
is now confined to the northern side of the circulation and that the
inner core has been eroding. In addition, there appears to be some
frontal features beginning to form. The initial intensity is
lowered to 70 kt following a blend of the latest satellite intensity
estimates. The 34-kt wind radii have been tweaked on the system's
east side based on recent ASCAT data.
Extratropical transition should be complete on Monday when the
system moves over water temperatures in the low 20's C and into an
environment of nearly 40 kt of vertical wind shear. These
parameters will also cause steady weakening during the next few
days, and dissipation seems likely by day 4. The models are in
good agreement, and this forecast is closest to the latest GFS
solution.
Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial
motion is 045/22 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with a notable
increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as
the system moves within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This
should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on
Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday.
Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large
swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across
portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and
Atlantic Canada.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 38.6N 43.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:33 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000
FONT12 KNHC 070232
PWSAT2
HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm
Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
325
WTNT32 KNHC 070232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024
...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY...
...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.6N 43.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located
near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 43.6 West. Kirk is moving toward
the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster
east-northeastward motion is expected during the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to
become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple
of days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm
...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST COAST...
As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Oct 7
the center of Kirk was located near 38.6, -43.6
with movement NE at 25 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 964 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
000
WTNT22 KNHC 070231
TCMAT2
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024
0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 480SE 540SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 44.7W
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...260NE 290SE 220SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 290SE 250SW 190NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 250SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE 150SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 43.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 9:32 pm
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062341
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some development of this system while it
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde
Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 6:41 pm
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:48:07 GMT
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 4:48 pm
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:29:36 GMT
Posted on 6 October 2024 | 4:29 pm
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