Abaco Weather
Average Weather for Abacos (Green Turtle Cay)
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F° |
| 75 | 78 | 80 | 80 | 85 | 88 | 89 | 88 | 88 | 86 | 83 | 80 |
| Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F° |
| 63 | 67 | 66 | 70 | 73 | 76 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 74 | 71 | 71 |
| Monthly Rainfall - Inches |
| 6.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 11 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 6.8 | 4.6 |
| Number of Rain Days |
| 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 5 |
Abaco Tide Tables
Green Turtle Cay, Abacos, Bahamas Weather Forecast
9/23/2021 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 79 F Mainly cloudy, showers around 
Currently: Mostly Cloudy: 82F
Currently in Green Turtle Cay, BS: 82 °F and Mostly Cloudy
9/22/2021 Forecast
High: 86 F Low: 81 F Partly sunny, a stray t-storm 
Whitesound, Elbow Cay, Bahamas Weather Forecast
Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop
Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop
Eleuthera Weather Forecast
Melbourne Florida Radar Map
NASA's Hurricane Resource Page
Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)
Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images
Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:47 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:48 GMT
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:39 pm
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:39:24 GMT
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:39 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
000
WTNT42 KNHC 230238
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
Rose continues to be devoid of deep convection as shear and dry
mid-level air has taken their toll on the system. Although Rose
appears to be well on its way to post-tropical cyclone status, it
seems prudent to maintain advisories a little longer since the
system is over warm waters and some convection could return
overnight. If that does not occur, Rose is likely to become
a remnant low by tomorrow morning, and that is what is indicated in
the official forecast. The remnant low is forecast to continue to
gradually spin down over the next day or two. The GFS and ECMWF
suggest that some convection could re-develop in the 48-96 h time
period when the remnants of Rose interact with an upper-level
trough, but the NHC forecast once again does not call for
re-generation at that time. In fact, the latest forecast calls for
the system to become an open trough by 96 h, which is supported by
the GFS.
Rose has continued to move west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. The
cyclone should turn northwestward very soon as it moves around the
western flank of a low- to mid-level ridge. Rose or its remnants
should then turn northward, northeastward, and then eventually
east-northeastward as a deep-layer trough digs southward over the
east-central Atlantic. The latest guidance envelope has again
shifted westward in the short term, and the updated NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. After 36 h, the official
forecast lies near the previous advisory and is close to the
various consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 24.6N 40.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
000
WTNT43 KNHC 230238
TCDAT3
Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
The depression's organization has not improved since earlier this
afternoon. An analysis of the ambiguities from 0000 UTC ASCAT-B
data suggests that the surface circulation is just barely closed,
with the center still attached to the northern end of a trough.
Peak wind retrievals from the scatterometer pass were 25-30 kt, so
the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
Based on the ASCAT data, the depression appears to be moving just
north of due west, or 275/13 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging to the
north is expected to maintain the cyclone on a westward heading for
the next 36 hours, followed by a path toward the west-northwest
from day 2 through day 5. The more notable part of the forecast is
the forward speed. Global models are showing anomalously strong
500-mb ridging developing over the eastern and central Caribbean
Sea in 2 to 3 days, which is likely to block the depression's
forward progress toward the end of the forecast period. In fact,
the current NHC forecast has the system moving west-northwestward
at only 7 or 8 kt well east of the Lesser Antilles on days 3 through
5. All this means that it will probably be a few more days before
we have a better idea if and how the system might potentially
threaten areas farther west. For the 5-day forecast period, there
is a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the
updated NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids. This solution is not too different from the
previous forecast.
Overall, an environment of low shear, warm sea surface
temperatures, and a moist, unstable atmosphere appears conducive
for strengthening. However, there is some sort of signal being
conveyed by the global models (e.g., the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET)
whereby the cyclone's surface circulation does not really tighten
up for another 24 to 48 hours. Given the system's current
structure, this scenario seems plausible. Therefore, the updated
NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening during
the first 48 hours, just a bit below the intensity consensus in
deference to the global model solutions. After 48 hours, the
official forecast converges on top of the previous NHC forecast and
still brings the cyclone to hurricane, and then possibly major
hurricane, strength by the end of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 10.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 10.9N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 12.0N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 12.6N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 13.2N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 14.5N 50.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
000
WTNT22 KNHC 230238
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 40.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 40.6W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 41.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.2N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N 33.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 40.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
000
FONT12 KNHC 230238
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY...
As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22
the center of Rose was located near 24.6, -40.9
with movement WNW at 10 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
000
WTNT32 KNHC 230238
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
...ROSE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY THURSDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 40.9W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose
was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 40.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A northwestward motion is expected tonight, with a turn
toward the north forecast by Thursday night. A motion toward the
northeast is expected on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Rose is expected to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by
early Thursday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
000
FONT13 KNHC 230238
PWSAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:01 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 23 Sep 2021 02:38:01 GMT
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:38 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
000
WTNT23 KNHC 230237
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 35.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 34.4W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.4N 37.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.9N 39.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.4N 42.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.0N 44.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.6N 46.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 47.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.5N 50.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 35.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR...
As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22
the center of Eighteen was located near 10.2, -35.0
with movement W at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230237
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TAKE ITS TIME CROSSING THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...LOTS OF TIME TO MONITOR...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 35.0W
ABOUT 1955 MI...3150 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Eighteen was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 35.0 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through early Friday.
A slower motion toward the west-northwest is expected later on
Friday and continuing into the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. It is then
forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
000
WTNT41 KNHC 230237
TCDAT1
Remnants Of Peter Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
Although a low-level swirl can still be seen in infrared satellite
imagery, this feature has continued to lose definition. A recently
arriving partial ASCAT-A overpass shows that the circulation has
become more elongated, and Peter lacks a well-defined center. In
addition, the system has not produced any organized deep convection
in quite some time. The cloudiness and convective activity that has
been occuring over the western Atlantic has been located along a
trough axis well northeast of the decaying circulation center. As a
result, Peter no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,
and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial
intensity is set at 25 kt in accordance with the ASCAT data. The
remnants of Peter are expected to remain within an area of strong
upper-level westerly winds, and further weakening should occur over
the next day or two.
The system has been moving slowly north-northwestward or 335/4 kt.
A weakness in the low-level ridge should allow the remnants to turn
northward tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through
the end of the week.
This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information
on the remnants of Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 22.1N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:37 pm
...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...
As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 22
the center of Peter was located near 22.1, -67.0
with movement NNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:35 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
000
FONT11 KNHC 230235
PWSAT1
REMNANTS OF PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF PETER WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30
MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:35 pm
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
000
WTNT31 KNHC 230235
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Peter Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
...DEPRESSION PETERS OUT...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 67.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Peter were located near
latitude 22.1 North, longitude 67.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The remnants are
expected to move generally northward over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Peter will affect the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and portions of the Bahamas during the
next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on the remnants of
Peter can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Brown
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:35 pm
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
018
WTNT21 KNHC 230234
TCMAT1
REMNANTS OF PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021
0300 UTC THU SEP 23 2021
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 67.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 66.9W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 67.0W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF
PETER CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01
KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 9:34 pm
000
ABNT20 KNHC 222302
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico,
on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1200 miles west-northwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands, and on newly designated Tropical
Depression Eighteen, located about 2000 miles east-southeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.
A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located about 600 miles west-northwest of the
westernmost Azores. This low is expected to be nearly stationary
over cold waters through Thursday, but it could become a
subtropical or tropical cyclone while it moves southward over
marginally warmer waters on Friday and Saturday. Strong upper-level
winds are expected to develop over the system during the weekend,
which would likely limit its development. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued under
WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eighteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Berg
Posted on 22 September 2021 | 6:02 pm
|Weather Page Top|
|
