Abacos Bahamas

Abaco Weather

Average Weather for Abacos (Green Turtle Cay)

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Mean Daily Maximum Temperature - F°
757880808588898888868380
Mean Daily Minimum Temperature - F°
636766707376777576747171
Monthly Rainfall - Inches
6.36.62.81.5115.64.67.45.42.76.84.6
Number of Rain Days
8755111391316695

Abaco Tide Tables

Green Turtle Cay, Abacos, Bahamas Weather Forecast

9/22/2019 Forecast
High: 84 F Low: 79 F Cloudy; breezy

Currently: Intermittent Clouds: 81F
Currently in Green Turtle Cay, BS: 81 °F and Intermittent Clouds

9/21/2019 Forecast
High: 83 F Low: 80 F Partly sunny; windy

Whitesound, Elbow Cay, Bahamas Weather Forecast

Intellicast Atlantic Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Intellicast Caribbean Weather Radar Map - Hi Res Loop

Eleuthera Weather Forecast

Melbourne Florida Radar Map

NASA's Hurricane Resource Page

Sea Surface Temperatures (expressed in Celcius degrees)

Space, Science & Engineering's Interactive Geostationary Real Time Satellite Images

NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


474
ABNT20 KNHC 211149
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of
Puerto Rico.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands
on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development
and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early
next week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure centered near the eastern tip of Cuba
continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected while it
moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days due
to strong upper-level winds and interaction with land. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially
causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely
to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Posted on 21 September 2019 | 6:49 am

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:56:34 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:24:49 GMT

Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:56 am

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 16

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 210855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this
morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level
eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some
westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and
SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively,
which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum
pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with
a 38-kt surface wind.

Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is
now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward
toward a break in the subtropical ridge today through Sunday,
followed by a northward turn on Monday. By Tuesday, a deep-layer
trough is expected to capture Jerry and accelerate the cyclone
northeastward in the general direction of Bermuda. There remains
excellent agreement among the track models on this developing
scenario, and the official track lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Jerry is likely to experience fluctuations in intensity during the
next 72 hours due to increases/decreases in the vertical wind shear
affecting the cyclone. By 96 hours as Jerry moves closer to Bermuda,
the cyclone is forecast to come move into the right-rear entrance
region of a modest jetstream maximum, not unlike what occurred with
former Hurricane Humberto a few days ago. Thus, despite the expected
increase in the vertical wind shear to at least 30 kt,
re-intensification into a hurricane is forecast similar to a
consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is passing north of the northern
Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there
overnight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 21.4N  64.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 22.7N  65.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 24.3N  66.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 26.0N  67.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/0600Z 27.3N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  24/0600Z 29.8N  66.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  25/0600Z 33.2N  63.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/0600Z 36.7N  60.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:55 am

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 210854
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  55(73)   3(76)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)   1(38)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   2(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:54 am

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21 the center of Jerry was located near 21.4, -64.0 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:54 am

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 16

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 210854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Jerry is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today. Jerry is forecast to recurve
over the western Atlantic during the next few days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will continue to pass well north of the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, pass well east of the
southeastern Bahamas on Sunday, and turn northward over the western
Atlantic on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are likely during the next
several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL STATEMENT: Jerry is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 inches,
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, Anegada, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin
Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:54 am

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 16

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019


000
WTNT25 KNHC 210853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  64.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N  64.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  63.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.7N  65.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.3N  66.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N  67.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.3N  67.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N  66.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.2N  63.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 36.7N  60.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N  64.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Posted on 21 September 2019 | 3:53 am

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